A big question, of course, is how long Turkey will remain on Syrian territory, given Erdogan`s stated intention to transfer about 1.5 million refugees from their current camps inside Turkey. The „safe zone“ can also become a „safe haven“ for anti-Assad forces, who are currently acting as Erdogan`s facilitators in Operation Spring Peace and advancing their own agenda, in contradiction with some of Erdogan`s commitments under the Sochi agreement. In addition, the fate of thousands of IS fighters remains under Kurdish guard, including hundreds of Damascus claimed to have been sent to Iraq by US forces. Will Erdogan take over the new prison, as the White House recently claimed, or will he instead recruit it to his army, as he has already done, according to various reports? On the other hand, if the focus is on the implementation of the Adana Agreement, in which Ankara takes place directly with Damascus and in good faith pursues the Astana process with Russia and Iran, there is a good chance that the Sochi agreement can have long-term revenue values. In other words, in the days and weeks ahead, much will depend on the effective implementation of the paper agreement. From the point of view of Tehran and Damascus, the agreement has the potential profound error of giving legitimacy to the area of Operation Peace Spring, which is down, not least because Ankara has not yet defended the cause and has instead tried to maximize the use of its deputies, with limited success so far. As for Tehran`s reaction, it is unlikely that the Sochi agreement will be enthusiastically adopted. Tehran prefers to stay in touch with Damascus, which explains the Iranian leadership`s repeated call for Turkey to immediately cease its military action. Indeed, an editorial in the conservative daily Kayhan, close to the Supreme Leader, calls the Sochi agreement „controversial“, surprises Russia`s allies in Tehran and Damascus and paves the way for a „new crisis“, while filling the dubious search for a „safe zone“ by Turkey. Once again, a 1993 agreement, negotiated by Russia, the ceasefire agreement in Abkhazia and a mechanism to ensure compliance, allowed a moratorium on the use of force, the withdrawal of belligerents from the war zone within a fortnight, the creation of a Russian-Abkhaz control group to monitor the ceasefire, the return of the Abkhaz Parliament to Sumiouk , UN observers on the territory, and the resumption of talks on the settlement of the dispute.
In August of the same year, UNMOT was deployed as a United Nations monitoring force. The ceasefire was violated on 27 September when Abkhazian troops conquered Sukhumi and proclaimed victory. Pro-Georgian forces then withdrew to Tbilisi when Georgia joined the CIS and changed Russia`s attitude towards Georgia on this issue. „Russia will certainly take the necessary steps to ensure that the Idlib de-escalation zone is not attacked. Together, we will ensure that third-party provocations and violations of the agreement are flushed out and avoided. „With this agreement, we have ruled out a major humanitarian crisis in Idlib,“ Erdogan told reporters at the press conference with Putin. Celik said that it is not only the violations of the Sochi agreement, but also Russia`s promises that are being violated by the regime. Putin stressed the importance of preserving Syria`s territorial integrity and removing illegitimate foreign troops from Syrian territory. Putin then worked on the phone to get Assad on board.